HARRISBURG, Pa. — For many in the first week of March, the daffodils are already blooming, people have their gardens in mind after a warmer than average winter. This winter is one in a line of several above average warmth over the past few years.
Overall, the global weather pattern that we've been stuck in looks to shift beginning in spring 2023.
Let's break down how that looks for March, April and May.
2023 looks to be the year our weather pattern finally changes. For three years now we've been dealing with La Niña. That's only ever happened twice before.
La Niña conditions start with cooler than average surface water temperatures along the equator of the pacific ocean. That generally sets us up for the mild conditions we had -- like for this winter, along with slightly above average precipitation.
This year, our precipitation of course fell as mostly rain. But through the year, we're set up to change over to El Niño conditions -- which is exactly the opposite of La Niña. Sea surface temperatures warm at the equator along the Pacific, which typically sets us up for drier conditions once it takes hold.
In between now and the winter, spring will serve as a transition time--a transition, simply, to normal.
In fact, it's essentially locked in -- with near 100% confidence from the national oceanic and atmospheric administration.
And while changing climate patterns can lead to occasional temperature and precipitation swings, normal for our area sets up like this.
For March, April and May, we receive on average between three-and-a-half and four inches of rain each month.
It's temperature that we really notice the changing daily weather. March's average of 41.8° rises to 53.2° in April -- which includes a twelve and a half degree rise in average temperature.
For May, same thing -- up to just over 63 degree average, with nearly a 74 degree average high. Other than the shift in the El Niño/La Niña pattern, general rise in temperature due to global warming does add on the low chance of above average temperature -- simply following the trend of the last several decades. warmer temperatures, combined with otherwise a normal weather pattern, means the atmosphere can hold slightly more moisture before rain falls in the atmosphere.
Here's the outlook for March, April and May from the Climate Prediction Center as well. Once factoring in the changing pattern along with a changing jet stream, we come close to normal, with the low potential of above average rainfall, around 30%, and the same for above average temperatures -- as we factor in the overall temperature rise expectation due to overall global warming.
The good news after our warm winter -- is that the snowpack in New York state is low. as it melts, that contributes to river flooding downstream on the Susquehanna and its tributaries. but with the less than average snowfall, we should get a break from seasonal river flooding.
And while spring largely sets up the pattern for summer -- we can expect much of the same average conditions -- though as we transition to an El Niño setup, we'll dry out a bit more and warm up just a bit as well compared to our seasonal averages.
We'll really start to feel the El Niño developing by late summer and early fall, which will have a bigger impact on the winter of 2023-2024.
And after an abnormally warm winter, a return to normal might not sound so bad.