PENNSYLVANIA, USA — The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 across Pennsylvania has been moving in a downward direction over the past two weeks.
Now, doctors are eyeing case numbers as the Delta surge seems to be slowing, but a possible winter surge is near.
"I think what we're really seeing are three competing factors," UPMC infectious disease specialist Dr. John Goldman said. "One, is the end of the summer surge in the south. Two, is the end of the original Delta surge that we had over the summer. But...the North/Northeast is getting into winter where we typically have an increase in respiratory infections. COVID is obviously a respiratory virus."
Dr. Goldman noted more people are getting vaccinated now as children 5 and above are eligible for the Pfizer vaccine. Boosters are also beginning to roll out across the nation for all adults. All of those factors could put the nation in a race between shots and a possible winter surge.
"We're trying to figure out whether increase in the ease of transmission due to it getting colder, getting into the traditional respiratory virus season, outcompetes the increase in vaccination," he said. "Particularly, the increase in vaccination in kids, particularly, the increase in booster shots."
UPMC is also experiencing an increase in COVID-19 testing but Dr. Goldman said hospitals are getting a helping hand in handling the demand as many pharmacies offer testing now. He calls the PCR test the "gold standard" for determining if someone is infected with COVID-19, as opposed to a rapid test.
Delta, meantime, remains the dominant variant in the United States as it is much more contagious than the original strain of COVID-19. It is unclear if a variant stronger than Delta could appear. But, Dr. Goldman said so far, the vaccine is holding up well against all of the variants.
"Delta is really good at reproducing itself," he said. "The Delta variant has outcompeted every other variant in the United States...there was a lot of publicity around variants that might evade the vaccine. The vaccine works against the Delta variant. So, because it's outcompeting everything else it's crowding out other viruses that might become more dangerous."
Dr. Goldman believes the chance that a stronger variant than Delta may appear is likely low, but not completely impossible.